Further house price falls expected as economy remains fragile

The fragile economic recovery looks set to disrupt the housing market during 2011 leading to property price falls, it was predicted today.

The Centre for Economics and Business Research (Cebr) said house prices had risen by 6.4% during 2010, but it said the market recovery would stall this year, triggering price falls of 1.7%.

It said anaemic growth in disposable incomes and higher unemployment throughout 2011 would trigger house price falls, particularly in regions that were most vulnerable to public sector cuts.

But it said affordability for first-time buyers would reach an eight-year high as house price growth weakened and mortgage interest rates stayed at record low levels.

Mortgage lending is expected to remain low next year as demand is muted and households focus on paying down their debt and increasing their savings levels.

But house prices should begin to rise again in 2012 as banks relax their lending criteria further and consumer confidence recovers.

The group expects property prices to rise by 2.3% in 2012, followed by gains of 3.7% in 2013 and increases of 4.7% and 5.5% in 2014 and 2015 respectively.

Douglas McWilliams, chief executive of Cebr, said: "We expect house prices to grow tentatively over the coming years, given that household incomes are being squeezed and banks are still wary of lending.

"There is currently significant uncertainty in the market caused by the Government's spending cuts and a choppy recovery, which has greatly impacted transaction levels."

Shehan Mohamed, the report's author and an economist at Cebr, said: "We expect to see household earning power suffer over the next year or so, due to higher inflation and weaker employment prospects as the economic recovery remains fragile.

"Lower consumer confidence throughout the year is expected to rein in demand for mortgages, which will average around 50,000 per month - still around 50% lower than pre-credit crunch levels.

Prime property market in England and Wales set for recovery in 2011

The prime residential property market in England and Wales will be steady in the first half of the year before showing an improvement in quarter three and then maintaining that momentum into 2012, it is claimed.

According to Mike Bidwell, chief operating officer of Fine & Country UK, who has worked in the residential market place for over a quarter of a century, the recovery will take place quicker in the south of England rather than the north even though there are hot spots and cold spots in both halves of the country.

He has held detailed conversations over the course of the last three months with some of the best and most experienced residential estate agents in England and Wales who form part of the Fine & Country network comprising of 300 locations worldwide.

‘I expect the mainstream market will remain challenging throughout next year followed by a gradual improvement during 2012. There is a pent up demand across the market with sales volumes having dropped dramatically over each of the last three years. It could be estimated that there are as many as 2,000,000 people who have not moved during this period that otherwise might have done so were it not for the adverse economic conditions,’ said Bidwell.

I believe that some homeowners have placed their moving plans on hold for long enough or are seeing enough light at the end of the tunnel to make their minds up and get on with it. After all even if prices are down in their area from the peak, then so long as they buy and sell in the same market conditions, it really makes no great difference particularly as more and more owners are seeing their house as a home as opposed to an investment,’ he explained.

He points out that the top end of the market will recover more quickly as owners in this sector are usually more equity rich. ‘We already know that there is enough cash around to ensure that the buying chain doesn’t have to start with a first time buyer, for whom it has to be said, the outlook unfortunately remains quite tough with attractive mortgage deals remaining hard to obtain,’ he said.

He also expects interest rates to remain low for an extended further period making property more affordable to those who can fund the deposit required to get into the market. ‘I also believe that there is reason to believe that responsible mortgage lending will increase once the economy shows signs of consistent recovery, which will inevitably come later for the lower end of the market,’ he added.